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You wrote:
"My info on kit 88349 is that mutations are present on site 6 and 21..."
Oh yes, my error. I was looking at the wrong string.
"Even more rare would be 2 single mutations at one site over such a relatively short time as the Paces in America. Even more unlikely is a reverse double mutation. Therefore FTDNA's permutation indicate that a double occurred and 3a and 3b are related."
FTDNA originally said that 3B was "not closely related" to 3A. Some of those involved in the Pace DNA Project were dissatisfied with that conclusion. The Pace DNA Project therefore requested that the results be reconsidered, telling FTDNA that it was "known" that the two groups came from the same locality. FTDNA revised its view on that basis.
That's unfortunate, because in fact there's no evidence that the two came from the same locality.
The very different naming patterns, the absence of mutual associations, and the absence of any evidence of proximity, all suggest that the two groups descended from different immigrants. Chances are FTDNA's original opinion was correct, there was no "rare double mutation", and the mutations do reflect the period of time that has elapsed since the most recent common ancestor.
I raised on the Rootsweb Pace mailing list the question of whether 26541, 21419, 19490, and 122167 might represent an "intermediate" group between 3A and 3B (http://listsearches.rootsweb.com/th/read/PACE/2009-06/1246272832). Rebecca Christensen pointed out that that wouldn't work unless all the other 3Bs (with two mutations) descended either from Edmund Pace (son of John the Tory), Edmond Pace of Lee Co, or Alsey Pace of Johnston Co. Which is ruled out by dates. On the other hand, the evidence does not rule out the possibility that all four descend from the same son of John the Tory, and simply inherited the back mutation from that same common ancestor. See http://listsearches.rootsweb.com/th/read/PACE/2009-07/1246648499 for Rebecca's reply to my question.
James Blair
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